12 Months After the Peak: Where Are We Now?

It’s been roughly a year since condo‑porn mania, pandemic‑era frenzy, and cheap‑money auctions cooled into spreadsheets, whispered phone calls with mortgage brokers, and sellers silently lowering their expectations.

If you’d told someone 18 months ago that by late 2025 we’d be here — with fewer buyers, more listings, and national home prices inching downward — they’d have asked what you were smoking. Yet here we are: the spotlight’s on, the hangover’s real, and Canadians — renters, buyers, sellers — are starting to realize this party had a doorman with a gun, and it never gave change.

This is the 12‑month retrospective. What’s changed, what’s emerging — and what it means for the next wave of damage (or opportunity).

What “The Peak” Even Means — And When Canada Hit It

First: let’s define the “peak.” For much of Canada, especially big markets, the peak is broadly accepted as early 2022. That’s when prices, demand, investor hype, and ultra‑low rates all overlapped.

Official data shows:

• A 2025 summary by a major real‑estate tracking site notes that by March 2025, national home sales had dropped 9.3% compared with March 2024 — the weakest March for sales since 2009. GlobeNewswire

• By October 2025, the national composite benchmark price (via Canadian Real Estate Association / CREA) was $690,195, down 1.1% from October 2024. CREA Stats

So “the peak” is not a guess — price‑history and sales‑history both point to 2022‑2023 as the high‑water mark.

What we have now — roughly 12–15 months later — is the market waking from a dream. Some people are still digging their pillows, others are standing, blinking, wondering where everything went.

Key National Trends — Sales, Prices, Inventory, and What They Reveal

Sales Are Down — But Activity is Patchy

• In March 2025, home sales were down 9.3 % year‑over‑year. GlobeNewswire

• That same report notes a sales‑to‑new‑listings ratio of 45.9%, the lowest since February 2009 (long before the 2020 real‑estate boom). GlobeNewswire

• But by August 2025, national sales recorded a 1.9% increase year‑over‑year — the best August in four years. Mortgage Rates & Broker News 

• As of October 2025, CREA reports a modest monthly increase (0.9%) in national home sales — marking the sixth consecutive month of growth. nesto.ca

Interpretation: the post‑peak plunge bottomed, and sales are attempting a rebound. But it’s neither dramatic nor uniform. This is a “market of patches” — some areas and segments show signs of life, others are still crickets.

Prices Are Softening — But Not Collapsing (Yet)

• The national average home price in October 2025 was $690,195 — down 1.1% from 2024. CREA Stats

• That said, prices are down far less than sales volume. And in many markets (especially outside overheated hubs), price drops are modest or even non‑existent. CREA Stats

• Some regions — e.g. parts of Prairie provinces — are still reporting steady or rising prices despite national softness. CREA Stats

Interpretation: Prices are resilient — but they’re not “safe.” The softening is slow. The market seems to be settling into a new normal instead of a crash. For homeowners expecting a big drop, disappointment may already be baked in.

Inventory is Creeping Up — But Not Everywhere

• According to CREA, as of October 2025, months‑of‑inventory nationwide stands at 4.4 months, slightly below the long‑term average of 5 months. CREA Stats

• Yet this masks big regional variation. For example, some Prairie markets show tight supply and price gains, while overheated zones like parts of Ontario & B.C. remain stagnated. CREA Stats

Interpretation: Inventory overall hasn’t exploded. Instead, stock is redistributing — moving out of high‑cost bubbles into cheaper or overlooked markets, reshuffling the deck rather than collapsing it.

Demand Is Fragile — And Easily Spooked

Analysts (and borrowers) cite a mixture of factors:

• Elevated mortgage rates still weigh on affordability.

• Economic uncertainty (tariffs, inflation, job market) dents buyer confidence. constructconnect.com

• Many Canadians who bought pre‑2022 remain underwater on payments vs. house value — they’re “sunk” unless prices recover or they can BTO‑flip.

The result? Buyers are mostly “watching,” not acting — unless forced.

Regional Snapshots: Where Canada’s Housing Map Is Fracturing

Because Canada is huge, national averages obscure the real fractures. Here’s how things look in a few representative areas:

Ontario (GTA & Beyond)

• October 2025: Sales down 5.7% year‑over‑year; average resale price down 5.2%. CREA Stats

• Demand remains weak compared to historical norms; buyers heavily focused on “entry-level condos” or smaller townhouses.

Meaning: Affordability is crushing mid-size family dwellings. The “entry-level condo → upgrade later” pipeline is clogged or broken.

Prairie Provinces (e.g. Manitoba, parts of Alberta, Winnipeg Region)

• October 2025: Winnipeg Regional Real Estate Board reports detached homes averaging $442,104 — up 4% from October 2024. CREA Stats

• Condo segment mixed: fewer sales but modest price gains, reflecting selective demand and lower investor pressure. CREA Stats

Meaning: Smaller cities with lower baseline prices are absorbing some demand spillover from overheated coastal markets. For middle-income households, these may be the only viable ownership zones left.

Atlantic Canada & Smaller Urban Markets

• November 2025 HPI data from Nova Scotia shows composite benchmark at $432,600 — up 5.2% year-over-year. CREA Stats

• Inventory is low (4.3 months), and demand seems steady or rising — perhaps driven by internal migration, remote work, or value-seeking newcomers. CREA Stats

Meaning: For now, Atlantic and smaller cities are the “escape valves.” Rising prices there might represent redistribution of population and wealth rather than genuine boom‑time speculation.

What’s Changed vs. 12 Months Ago — And What’s Normalizing

When you look back at 2024 vs 2025, some patterns emerge:

• Sales‑to‑new‑listings ratio is still low vs pre‑2022 norms — meaning demand remains soft relative to supply. GlobeNewswire

• Buyer composition has shifted — fewer investors, more owner‑occupiers who must qualify strictly under stricter stress‑tests, which throttles top-of-range bidding wars.

• Price corrections are gradual, not explosive. Instead of bursts of panic‑selling, we get slow drip drops or stabilization — which also softens shock, but prolongs uncertainty.

In human terms: the market isn’t hemorrhaging. It’s slowly exhaling steam. That’s more manageable emotionally — but it also means we may be entering a long “grey zone” (neither boom nor crash) that lasts years.

Why It’s Not A Crash — And Why That Matters

Everyone loves a dramatic meltdown. Spikes, crashes, headlines, panic. But right now, Canada is doing something subtler — and more dangerous to complacency:

Because of the patchwork nature of demand, the damage is diffused.

No one province or city has imploded. Some are fine. Others are soft. This spreads risk — but also hides it.

Because many owners are wealthy enough to ride it out.

Empty‑nesters. Portfolio investors. People with equity cushions. They don’t need to sell tomorrow. They just need to wait.

Because government dependence on real‑estate‑driven tax revenues discourages panic.

Municipalities, provinces, and even the feds benefit from high property values. A dramatic crash would hurt public budgets as much as private ones — so expect (at best) soft adjustments, not shock therapy.

What we have instead of a crash is a restabilization — lower growth, steadier (even if high) prices, fragmented demand, and a long, ugly plateau.

What This Means for Buyers, Renters, and Investors in Late 2025

Buyers looking to enter the market:

This might be your window. Prices have softened, competition is down, interest rates appear to be stabilizing, and you might catch sellers lowering expectations — not just prices.

Renters:

Be cautious. In many smaller markets, rents are still rising. In big metros, prices may stop skyrocketing — but affordability remains terrible. The gap between rent and mortgage payments has narrowed relative to peak‑boom, but both are expensive.

Investors (pre‑sale, rental, speculative):

This is the moment to check your math. Vacancy risk is rising. Carrying costs are high. Rental yields are compressed. The “earnings yield” that looked plausible in 2021 is suddenly brittle. Expect the next year or two to shake out weak hands.

Sellers needing liquidity (downsizing, cashing out):

Don’t expect a bidding war. Expect a sensible market. If you need to sell, price realistic and sooner rather than later — because holding on for a “rebound” may just mean watching inflation eat your gains.

What To Watch For in the Next 6–12 Months

If you’re trying to forecast where things go from here, watch these signals like a hawk:

• Mortgage rates & central bank policy: Another rate cut might trigger slight recovery — but too low risks rebooting speculation.

• Inventory levels by region: Watch smaller cities — rising inventory there could signal migration patterns or investor flight.

• Rental rates vs home prices: If rents stagnate while prices stay high, expect pressure on rental investors and possible rental‑market corrections.

• New‑home starts vs sales: Overbuilding in 2022–2024 may show up as oversupply in 2026–2027.

• Demographic shifts — migration, wages, employment: Real affordability depends on income growth. If wages stay flat while living costs climb, pressure builds fast.

So — 12 Months Later, Where Are We? Reality Check

• Sales are rising modestly — but demand remains uneven and fragile.

• Prices are down nationally, but not drastically — many regions holding value, especially outside overheated metros.

• Inventory is somewhat elevated — but not enough to trigger a crash.

• Market composition has shifted: fewer investors, more price‑conscious owner‑occupiers, slower upward pressure.

• The wild speculative boom is over — but a long, uncertain plateau has replaced it.

Canada didn’t crash.
It didn’t bounce back.
It quietly recalibrated.

And in that recalibration, a lot of 2021 money — hype, debt, expectation — was quietly written off.

If Your Head Hurts: What This Means For You (No Matter Who You Are)

Final Thought: The Peak Wasn’t a Blizzard — It Was a Heat‑Wave

Peaks are easy to remember. They carve lines in memory: “I made $X,” “The city felt alive,” “Everyone was buying.”

What’s harder — and far more dangerous — is the afterglow.
The lethargy.
The adjusted expectations.
The declined sense of urgency.

But make no mistake: 2025 isn’t the end of the story. It’s the beginning of a generational correction. The bubble didn’t pop — it deflated.

For many Canadians, affordability didn’t just soften.
It recalibrated reality entirely.

Whether you ride out this new market, surrender to it, or exploit it — depends on how awake you are right now.

Because the next few years won’t look like 2021.
They’ll look like whatever Canada needs to survive an affordability hangover.
And if we’re smart, maybe rebuild a housing system that remembers: houses are for living, not gambling.