America’s Buyer’s Market Is Here. When Does It Cross the Border to Canada—and B.C.?

The North American housing mood has flipped. In the U.S., buyers suddenly have options, leverage, and time—three things that felt extinct for most of the 2020s. Inventory is up, price cuts are common, builders are bargaining, and contracts are falling apart at the highest July rate on record. Canada isn’t there yet—at least not nationally—but British Columbia is edging closer than most of the country, with detached homes in Metro Vancouver already behaving like a buyer’s market.

Here’s the play-by-play of how the U.S. shifted first, what that actually looks like on the ground, and the timeline—and telltale signs—for when similar conditions land in Canada and B.C.

How the U.S. Slid Into a Buyer’s Market (Yes, With Asterisks)

1) Inventory finally showed up

The U.S. resale market hit 4.6 months of supply in July—up from 4.0 a year earlier—and new-home supply is even more bloated (roughly 9 months), a level historically associated with strong buyer leverage. Builders know it, and they’re pricing accordingly. (Nar REALTOR, Census.gov)

2) Builders blinked first

New homes are now priced below existing homes—an inversion that’s rare outside of down cycles. Median new-home price in July: $403,800. Median existing-home price: $422,400. Translation: if you’re shopping in many U.S. metros, the builder is often the cheapest seller in town—and the most willing to deal via rate buydowns and credits. (Census.gov, Nar REALTOR)

On top of that, U.S. builder sentiment is stuck in the low 30s on NAHB’s index (sub-50 = pessimism), and more than 60% of builders report using incentives. That’s the on-the-ground definition of bargaining power shifting to buyers. (National Association of Home Builders)

3) Price cuts and failed deals are piling up

Roughly one in five listings carried a price cut in July, and 15% of U.S. purchase agreements fell through—the highest July cancellation rate since Redfin started tracking in 2017. When buyers can walk away, they do. When sellers need to move a home, they trim. That’s leverage changing hands in real time. (Realtor, Redfin)

4) The averages hide local recessions

Nationally, prices are basically flat to slightly up year over year, but prices are already falling in a swath of major metros—from Oakland to parts of Florida and Texas—and Redfin’s own gauge shows monthly declines for three straight months. Averages are the rear-view mirror; local conditions are the windshield. (Redfin)

Bottom line (U.S.): Resale supply is near pre-pandemic norms, new-home supply is high, builders are discounting, and price cuts/cancellations are up. Functionally, that’s a buyer-tilted market in many metros—even if the national median price hasn’t fallen hard. (Nar REALTOR, Census.gov, Realtor, Redfin)

Where Canada Stands Right Now

Canada’s national indicators are cooler than 2021–22, but still not outright buyer-market territory.

• Sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) sat around 52% in July (national), within “balanced” norms (CREA says ~45–65% = balanced). Months of inventory was 4.4, also in the balanced zone (CREA pegs a buyer’s market at >6.4 months). (CREA, CREA Statistics)

That’s the national picture. But housing is local—and B.C., especially Metro Vancouver, is ahead of the curve:

• Metro Vancouver active listings: 17,168 in July—+20% year over year and 40% above the 10-year seasonal average. That’s a lot of choice hitting buyers’ screens. (GV Realtors)

• Sales-to-active listings ratio (SALR): 13.8% overall (balanced), but detached homes at 10.2%—below the 12% threshold the local board uses for buyer’s-market conditions. Townhomes and condos remain “balanced” (16–17%). (GV Realtors, Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

• RBC notes Vancouver’s supply-demand balance is slipping under “balanced” thresholds because inventory is the highest in more than a decade. Translation: gravity is pulling toward buyers, even if headline prices haven’t fully budged. (RBC)

Bottom line (Canada/B.C.): Canada overall is balanced—not buyer-dominated—but B.C. is further along the path, and detached homes in Greater Vancouver already meet the classic buyer-market definition (by SALR). (GV Realtors, Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

Why the U.S. Turned First (And What That Means for Canada)

1. Supply composition: The U.S. built more, and faster. That’s why new-home inventory is sitting near nine months. Canada’s chronic underbuilding keeps months of supply lower—even when demand cools—but that’s changing as completions crest in some urban markets. (Census.gov)

2. Builder behavior: U.S. builders move price and mortgage rate quickly; Canadian developers lean on presales, longer timelines, and smaller unit profiles. The U.S. “builder as price-leader” dynamic doesn’t translate 1:1 to Canada, which helps delay a full buyer’s regime—until inventory forces their hand. (National Association of Home Builders)

3. Policy backstops: U.S. buyers face fewer stress-test frictions at renewal; Canada’s stress test and OSFI guidance mean payment shocks cluster in 2025–26. That’s when distressed listings can swell—a late-arriving catalyst that can tip more markets to buyers. (CREA’s own dashboard shows conditions hovering near balance for now.) (CREA)

The Timeline: When a U.S.-Style Buyer’s Market Hits Canada (and B.C.)

Think of it as three overlapping waves:

Wave 1 (Already in motion): Segment-specific buyer power

• Where: Metro Vancouver detached (buyers), townhomes/condos (balanced leaning buyer).

• Why: Inventory surge + slower absorption; SALR at 10% for detached (buyer’s). (GV Realtors, Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

• What to watch next: More price cuts on stale listings and longer days-on-market; discounts on older, less-renovated product.

ETA: Now (Vancouver detached), Q4-2025 (more B.C. sub-markets tilt).

Wave 2 (Fall 2025 to mid-2026): Renewal shock meets rising completions

• Where: Major metros with large 2021–22 mortgage cohorts and condo completions (Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, parts of Toronto).

• Why: Renewals at much higher rates strain cash flows; some investors sell; buyers gain choice.

• What to watch: National months of inventory pushing toward ~5.5–6.0; SNLR dipping toward the low-40s; project-level price incentives spreading. (CREA, CREA Statistics)

ETA: Early 2026 for a broad buyers’ tilt nationally if inventory keeps grinding higher and sales don’t re-accelerate.

Wave 3 (If the economy wobbles): Full buyers’ market pockets

• Where: Investor-heavy condo belts and outer-suburb product where carrying costs no longer pencil.

• Why: Job losses or a second inflation bump (slowing rate cuts) would force faster price discovery.

• What to watch: Months of inventory breaching 6.4 nationally (CREA’s “buyer’s market” line); price declines spreading beyond the usual suspects. (CREA Statistics)

ETA: Conditional—depends on macro shocks. Without them, Canada likely stays balanced nationally, with B.C. more buyer-friendly than the country at large.

“Isn’t a Buyer’s Market Just Lower Prices?” Not Exactly.

Two clarifications:

• Leverage vs. labels: You can have a buyer-tilted market without a national price crash. The U.S. is proving that: national medians are flat-ish, while price cuts, incentives, and cancellations are doing the real work of transferring leverage to buyers. Expect the same choreography in Canada if listings continue to outnumber ready, willing, and qualified buyers. (Realtor, Redfin)

• What counts as “buyer’s” in Vancouver: Locally, the board uses sales-to-active listings (not SNLR). Under 12% = buyer’s; 12–20% = balanced. Detached at ~10% already qualifies. Condos are still higher (mid-teens), so don’t expect uniform softness—yet. (Greater Vancouver REALTORS®, GV Realtors)

The Signal Board: 9 Data Points That Tell You the Turn Has Arrived

1. SNLR falls below 45% nationally for more than a couple of months (Canada). Balanced turns buyer when that ratio sinks and stays there. (CREA)

2. Months of inventory >6.4 (CREA’s statistical “buyer’s market”) nationally—or >5.5 in B.C. for a sustained period. (CREA Statistics)

3. Metro Vancouver SALR <12% beyond detached—i.e., townhomes and condos join the buyer’s club. (Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

4. Active listings hit multi-year highs (we’re already close in Greater Vancouver). (GV Realtors)

5. Share of price-reduced listings rises month after month (watch U.S. trend for the template). (Realtor)

6. Purchase cancellations climb (harder to track in Canada, but watch developer disclosures and resale fall-through chatter mirroring the U.S. 15% July figure). (Redfin)

7. Builder incentives normalize in Canada (rate buydowns, free parking/storage, upgrade packages), just as they have in the U.S. (National Association of Home Builders)

8. CREA months-of-inventory trendline slopes up while HPI drifts flat to negative. (CREA)

9. RBC/BCREA notes emphasize inventory, not rates, as the dominant price driver. (RBC already is.) (RBC)

What This Means If You’re Buying (or Selling) in B.C.

If you’re buying (Greater Vancouver):

• Detached: You’re already in leverage territory. Negotiate on inspection credits, completion dates, and “as-is” condition adjustments. SALR says the odds are with you. (GV Realtors)

• Townhome/Condo: Still balanced. Focus on stale listings (>30 days), poorly staged units, and buildings with multiple identical floor plans—comparables give you ammunition.

If you’re selling:

• Price to the market you have, not the one you remember. In buyer-leaning segments, first price cut is usually the cheapest—don’t chase the market down in $10k increments while your DOM climbs.

If you’re an investor:

• Watch cash flow—not Instagram comps. U.S. builders are undercutting resales; Canadian developers may follow with incentives. If your yield relies on appreciation in 2026, recalibrate.

The Short Answer

• U.S.: Buyer power has arrived first—especially in new construction—thanks to higher inventory, deeper discounts, and more failed deals. (Census.gov, Nar REALTOR, Realtor, Redfin)

• Canada: Nationally still balanced (SNLR ~52%, MOI 4.4). Not a classical buyer’s market yet. (CREA, CREA Statistics)

• B.C.: Closer than most provinces. Greater Vancouver detached is already in buyer territory by the local rulebook (SALR <12%), with overall inventory at decade-plus highs tilting leverage toward buyers, especially on dated product. (GV Realtors, Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

• Timeline: Expect broad buyer-market feel in more B.C. segments by late 2025 to early 2026, and a national buyer tilt only if months of inventory climbs into the 6s—something that likely requires a mix of higher completions and cooler demand as renewal shocks bite. (CREA, CREA Statistics)

Until then, the U.S. is your preview: more choice, more concessions, and a little less FOMO each month. Canada and B.C. are on the same road—just a few exits behind.