America’s Buyer’s Market Is Here. When Does It Cross the Border to Canada—and B.C.?

Short version: U.S. buyers finally have leverage. Canada is still “balanced,” but British Columbia—especially Metro Vancouver detached—has one foot already in buyer territory. Below is the long version: how the U.S. flipped first, what the numbers actually say, and the countdown clock for Canada and B.C., with the exact signals to watch and the traps to avoid.

First, the turn: how the U.S. slid into a buyer’s market

The American housing machine didn’t “crash.” It pivoted. Four pressure points moved in the same direction: inventory climbed, builders blinked, price cuts spread, and deals fell apart at the fastest July pace on record. That cocktail doesn’t always slash national medians overnight, but it flips bargaining power—fast.

Inventory finally showed up. In July, existing-home supply sat at 4.6 months, up from 4.0 a year earlier. New-home supply hovered at 9.2 months—a level historically associated with strong buyer leverage and builder discounting. That “9-handle” is the tell; it’s where builders start to negotiate in public (rate buydowns, closing credits) instead of in whispers. (Nar REALTOR, Census.gov)

Builders blinked first—and hard. In an inversion almost never seen outside down cycles, new homes have been selling cheaper than existing homes. July’s median existing price was $422,400, while new-home pricing has tracked under that headline for months as builders move product with incentives and plan-level cuts. NAHB’s July survey: 62% of builders used incentives, and 38% cut price (average cut: 5%). Translation: the factory is dealing. (Nar REALTOR, National Association of Home Builders)

Price cuts and failed deals piled up. Roughly 22% of active listings carried a price drop in July, up from 18% a year ago. And 15.3% of U.S. purchase agreements fell through—a record for the month of July since Redfin began tracking in 2017. When buyers can walk, they do; when sellers need a result, they trim. That’s leverage changing hands in real time. (Redfin)

The averages hide local recessions. National medians can stay flat while specific metros (think investor-heavy Florida/Texas pockets or Bay Area suburbs) post sequential declines. Even Redfin’s own dashboard has been telegraphing softer sale-to-list ratios and fewer above-ask wins. If you only stare at the national median, you’ll miss the ground truth: buyers already act like they’re in control in many markets. (Redfin)

Bottom line (U.S.): With resale supply near pre-pandemic norms, new-home supply high, builder sentiment in the 30s (sub-50 = pessimism), widespread incentives, more price cuts, and record July cancellations, the U.S. now “functions” like a buyer’s market in large swaths of the country—even if the headline median hasn’t fallen off a cliff. (National Association of Home Builders, Redfin)

Where Canada sits in late-2025: balanced on paper, wobbly underneath

Nationally, Canada still reads as “balanced.” The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) was ~52% in July (CREA pegs 45–65% as balanced). Months of inventory hovered in the mid-4s—again, balanced. Sales are up modestly off the spring trough; supply is also up modestly. On the scoreboard, neither team is winning by much. (CREA Statistics)

But “balanced” is a headline, not a neighborhood. Peel back the layers and you’ll find three realities:

1. Canada is on a different clock. Our mortgage renewal bulge (2025–26) means distress-driven listings and developer incentives arrive later than in the U.S. The timing gap alone keeps national “months of inventory” from spiking—for now.

2. Builders here don’t slash the way U.S. builders do. The presale financing model (hit a presale threshold before your construction loan) slows price discovery. That delays the optics of a buyer’s market, even when leverage is quietly shifting.

3. Regional divergence is wide. Prairie detached behaves nothing like GTA micro-condos. The national median masks those fault lines.

B.C. and Metro Vancouver: closer to buyer land than the rest of Canada

If you want to see Canada’s future, look at B.C. first—specifically the Lower Mainland. The signals are louder here.

• Active listings are unusually high. Metro Vancouver had 17,168 properties listed in July—+19.8% year-over-year and ~40% above the 10-year seasonal average. Choice is back. Choice is buyer power. (Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

• Leverage depends on property type. The local board’s sales-to-active listings ratio (SALR) was 13.8% overall in July. By type: 10.2% for detached, 16.7% for townhomes, 15.9% for condos. In this region, sustained <12% SALR = buyer’s market. Detached is already there. (Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

If you’re shopping a dated house on the West or East Side, your odds of extracting a concession are meaningfully higher than if you’re bidding on a well-located townhouse or newer two-bed condo. Buyers’ markets show up in segments before they show up in headlines.

RBC and other forecasters have noticed the same tilt: confidence is creeping back, but prices in “affordability-stretched, high-inventory” markets like Vancouver continue to soften, precisely because supply has climbed to multi-year highs. (RBC Wealth Management, Mortgage Professional America)

Why the U.S. flipped first (and what that means for the timing in Canada)

Supply composition was the hinge. The U.S. built faster and leaned harder on new construction during the post-pandemic boom. That’s why new-home months of supply ballooned toward 9 while resale hovered around the mid-4s. When builders have nine months of inventory, they sharpen pencils. Canada’s chronic under-building kept our months-of-supply lower—even in a slowdown—so the visible “flip” takes longer. (Census.gov, Nar REALTOR)

Builder behavior matters. U.S. builders routinely pay points to “buy down” the buyer’s mortgage rate, toss in upgrades, or slash price to move inventory. Canadian developers rely on presales to secure construction financing, limiting how and when they can publicly cut. The flip side: when our presale pipeline hits completion in 2025–27 at 2021 prices and 2025 appraisals, that’s when you see incentives and distress surface. (You can already find the early signs in investor-heavy condo belts.)

Policy backstops diverge too. The U.S. has a different underwriting culture and refinancing toolkit. Canada’s stress-test and OSFI guardrails cluster the real payment shocks into 2025–26 renewals—precisely when more supply from completions lands. That’s the Canadian collision course.

The timeline: three overlapping waves on the road to a buyer’s market in Canada/B.C.

Wave 1 — Segment-specific buyer power (now through late-2025).

• Where: Metro Vancouver detached is already buyer-tilted by the official SALR rule (<12%); townhouse and condo remain “balanced,” but buyers have more leverage on stale or commodity units.

• What to watch: DOM (days on market) stretching; more price re-lists; “as-is” homes drawing steep inspection credits; seller-paid repairs creeping back. (Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

Wave 2 — Renewals meet completions (Q4-2025 through mid-2026).

• Where: Investor-heavy corridors (Brentwood/Metrotown/Surrey City Centre; parts of downtown Vancouver) and outer-suburb product that pencilled only at 2021 rates.

• What to watch: National SNLR pressing toward the mid-40s (CREA’s “balanced-to-soft” territory), months of inventory drifting higher, and developers standardizing incentives (rate buydowns, free parking/storage, upgrade packages) on new product. (CREA Statistics)

Wave 3 — If the macro buckles (conditional).

• Where: The same condo belts and exurban subdivisions, plus any region facing job losses in construction/retail.

• Trigger: Slower-than-hoped BoC cuts or a growth wobble that keeps unemployment rising.

• Tell: A sustained surge in price-reduced listings and rising fall-throughs; months of inventory pushing solidly past “balanced” levels for multiple months.

Probable arrival: B.C. segments tip progressively buyer-friendly through late-2025 into early-2026; a truly national buyer tilt likely requires months of inventory in the 6s, which in turn requires both higher completions and muted demand under renewal stress. (CREA Statistics)

The scoreboard you should actually watch (and why the usual “median price” headline misleads)

Headlines will tell you the national median is flat or down 1–3%. That’s background noise. If you want to time leverage, watch these nine metrics:

1. SNLR < 45% nationally for several months (Canada). That’s when leverage leaves the seller’s hands and doesn’t come back easily. (CREA Statistics)

2. Months of inventory trending up across major boards for at least a quarter. A one-month jump can be noise; a trend is destiny. (CREA Statistics)

3. Metro Vancouver SALR <12% not only for detached (already there) but also for townhomes/condos—sustained, not a blip. (Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

4. Active listings at multi-year highs in Lower Mainland sub-markets (we’re already close). (Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

5. Share of price-reduced listings rising month after month (use U.S. as the template; Canada data is noisier). (Redfin)

6. Purchase cancellations climbing—harder to track in Canada, but developer updates and brokerage chatter will rhyme with the 15% U.S. July figure. (Redfin)

7. Builder incentives normalized in Canada (they’re standard in the U.S. already). (National Association of Home Builders)

8. RBC/CREA notes that emphasize inventory, not rates, as the price driver (a shift already visible). (RBC Wealth Management, Mortgage Professional America)

9. Regional medians diverging further (e.g., Vancouver/Toronto soft while Prairies/Atlantic hold). The more pronounced the spread, the stronger the buyer’s edge in affordability-stretched regions. (RBC Wealth Management)

Field guide to a buyer’s market (U.S. lessons you’ll see replayed in Canada)

Lesson #1: A buyer’s market doesn’t require a national price crash. In the U.S., medians can be flat while builders buy down rates and toss 5–10k in closing credits. Functionally, buyers pay less than “list,” even if the paper median says otherwise. Expect the same choreography here: incentives and credits that soften real purchase cost without headline-grabbing price slashes. (National Association of Home Builders)

Lesson #2: It starts in new construction, then bleeds into resale. U.S. builders are professional price-takers with carrying costs and shareholder updates; they respond fastest. Canadian developers have presales to defend, but as completions collide with appraisal gaps, incentives seep into the resale narrative (especially in cookie-cutter condo product).

Lesson #3: It’s hyper-local. You can see a buyer’s market on one side of a SkyTrain station and a balanced market on the other. Don’t confuse regional medians with block-level reality.

Lesson #4: “Softer” markets reward preparation, not passivity. In the U.S., the best deals still go to buyers with airtight pre-approvals and flexible closing dates. Canadian buyers will find the same: leverage belongs to the ready.

British Columbia playbook: how to use (and not abuse) your leverage

Detached (Metro Vancouver): You already have the numbers on your side (SALR ~10%). Use condition length (longer inspection/financing windows) and repair credits as negotiating levers. Sellers who listed in spring 2025 based on 2021 comps are now confronting July’s inventory reality. Price reductions are easiest to win on dated houses with obvious capex (roof, windows, perimeter drainage).

Townhomes & Condos: Still balanced overall. Leverage exists, but it’s selective. Target (a) listings older than 25–30 DOM, (b) floor plans with many near-identical comps (buyers win when inventory is a commodity), and (c) buildings with multiple simultaneous resale listings (sellers compete with each other). Bring recent price-reduction comps to the table.

Presales: Treat incentives as price. A “1% rate buydown for two years” is worth real cash. So are free parking, storage, or upgrade packages—if you’d have paid for them anyway. Push for a transparent dollar value and compare apples-to-apples with resale.

Don’t overplay the hand. In a buyer-leaning but not yet buyer-dominated market, the best properties still draw multiple offers. Pick your battles: dated listings in oversupplied pockets, not the one immaculate townhouse five doors from the school gate.

Risks that could delay or dilute Canada’s buyer moment

• A faster-than-expected BoC easing cycle. If inflation cooperates and rates drop sharply, demand can re-accelerate before months of inventory clears higher.

• Immigration policy re-acceleration or a student-visa pivot. Sudden demand shocks can soak up inventory faster than forecasts assume.

• Developers pausing starts. If enough projects are shelved, 2027–28 supply troughs can reverse today’s leverage gains, particularly in rental.

These aren’t predictions; they’re speed-bumps on the road to a Canadian buyer’s market. The most likely path is still slow-motion buyer empowerment through 2026 as renewals reset and completions crest.

What the big banks and forecasters think (and what they’re missing)

CREA calls the national market balanced (SNLR ~52%), and it is—mathematically. RBC notes resales are rebounding, but that “inventory in affordability-stretched regions remains historically high,” putting downward pressure on prices in Vancouver/Toronto despite better sentiment. A Reuters poll pegs 2025 prices slightly negative nationally, stabilizing into 2026—again, more “grind” than “crash.” (CREA Statistics, RBC Wealth Management, Mortgage Professional America, Reuters)

What they sometimes under-emphasize is the sequencing: the U.S. flipped first because their supply mix and builder behavior invite quicker price discovery. Canada’s turn depends less on a central-bank headline and more on how renewals, completions, and local inventory interact street-by-street. The math is coming; it’s just Canadian-paced.

Frequently asked (smart) questions

“If it’s a buyer’s market, why aren’t prices plunging?”
Because a buyer’s market is a flow concept before it’s a price concept. It shows up in longer DOM, higher inventory, bigger credits, more walk-aways. Prices follow with a lag, and then mostly in segments where supply truly swamps demand (think investor-heavy condos). U.S. data on price cuts and cancellations is the template. (Redfin)

“Will Vancouver condos fall as much as detached?”
Not necessarily. Condos still sit in the “balanced” SALR range. The weakest pockets will be investor-dense, highly substitutable stock (micro-units, commodity towers with many near-identical floor plans)—especially if completion appraisals miss contract. Detached is already “buyer” by the book. (Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

“Is this 2008?”
No. Canada lacks the U.S. 2008-style sub-prime detonator. Our risk is the slow ice of payment shock at renewal and a grind of forced supply from investors. That’s a buyer’s market by attrition, not explosion.

A practical, step-by-step plan for B.C. buyers in the next 12 months

1. Pick markets with inventory, not headlines. Start with the GVR SALR tables. Detached under 12% is your lane right now; townhomes/condos require more patience and comp discipline. (Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

2. Build a “price-drop” watchlist. Track 10–15 target listings; note list-date, first price cut, current DOM. Data-backed offers land better than “vibes.”

3. Leverage the U.S. playbook. Ask new-build reps to quote the cash value of incentives (rate buydown, upgrades, credits). Benchmark against resale net pricing. (National Association of Home Builders)

4. Use calendar judo. Write offers near month-end/quarter-end when developers chase targets and when resale sellers stare at another mortgage payment.

5. Negotiate time, not just price. Longer inspection periods and flexible closes are currency—especially with older homes or sellers juggling another purchase.

6. Make the bank your ally. Lock a rate early, but keep shopping lenders. In a buyer-leaning market, mortgage flexibility (portability, prepayment, penalty math) can be worth more than a headline 10–15 bps.

7. Don’t “win” the wrong property. Buyer’s markets tempt over-aggression. Don’t buy a chronic-leaky envelope or litigation-ridden strata for a discount you’ll regret.

For sellers in B.C.: how to survive a buyer-tilted market without giving away the farm

• Price to today, not 2021. The highest net you’ll see is usually your first correct list price. Chasing down in $10k nibbles only bloats DOM and hands buyers leverage.

• Stage for the algorithm. Commodity condos live and die by thumbnails. You’re not staging for a buyer’s emotions; you’re staging for a buyer’s shortlist.

• Offer buyer-friendly terms—before you get asked. Pre-inspection reports, flexible closes, and realistic credits beat “firm only” posturing that results in zero traffic.

• Don’t fight the comps. If three near-identical units sat for 45 days and cut price, your “special view” won’t rescue you. Move to the front of the value line, not the back.

The verdict, without euphemism

• U.S.: The buyer’s market is tangible: more inventory, 9.2 months of new-home supply, widespread builder incentives, and 15% July cancellations. Buyers are in the driver’s seat across much of the country—even if the national median still looks stoic in print. (Census.gov, National Association of Home Builders, Redfin)

• Canada: Nationally balanced by the CREA rulebook (SNLR ~52%), not a classic buyer’s market—yet. But the dice are loaded: renewals, completions, and a softer economy into 2026. (CREA Statistics)

• B.C.: Closer than most. Metro Vancouver detached already qualifies as a buyer’s market by the local metric (SALR ~10%), while overall listings sit far above seasonal norms. Expect more segments to tilt buyer-friendly through late-2025 and into 2026 as the renewal wave crests. (Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

If you want a single sentence: America’s buyer’s market is the trailer; B.C. is the coming-soon; Canada is the feature film scheduled for 2026—unless the central bank surprises with a rate-cut binge or developers pull back so hard that supply vanishes. Until then, the leverage migration has begun. Use it wisely.

Sources for key stats cited above

• U.S. existing-home inventory & price: National Association of REALTORS® July snapshot (4.6 months; $422,400 median). (Nar REALTOR)

• U.S. new-home sales/inventory: Census/HUD July new residential sales (9.2 months of supply). (Census.gov)

• U.S. builder incentives & price cuts: NAHB July press release (62% used incentives; 38% cut price; avg. cut 5%). (National Association of Home Builders)

• U.S. cancellations & price-drop prevalence: Redfin (15.3% July fall-throughs; 21.8% price drops). (Redfin)

• Canada national balance: CREA August release (SNLR ~52% and balanced range guidance). (CREA Statistics)

• Metro Vancouver inventory & SALR: Greater Vancouver REALTORS® July report (17,168 actives; SALR: 13.8% overall; 10.2% detached; balanced thresholds). (Greater Vancouver REALTORS®)

• RBC commentary on high-inventory regions: RBC/affiliated write-ups noting price softness where inventory is elevated (Toronto, Vancouver). (RBC Wealth Management, Mortgage Professional America)

If you want, I can tailor this to a specific sub-market (e.g., Brentwood vs. Metrotown vs. Surrey City Centre) and map the current SALR, DOM, and price-cut cadence building-by-building.