After a Decade of Skyrocketing Prices, Can BC’s Real Estate Market Really Shift into Buyers’ Territory?

The Decade-Long Rollercoaster and What “Buyers’ Market” Really Means in BC

For over ten years, BC’s real estate market has been the definition of a seller’s paradise. Prices soared relentlessly, turning modest homes into million-dollar trophies and turning buyers into wary spectators on the sidelines. The phrase “buyers’ market” felt like a distant fantasy — whispered about by economists and skeptics, but never really felt on the ground. But after a decade of this uphill climb, the question isn’t just academic anymore: can BC’s housing market actually tip in favor of buyers? Or is the region stuck in an expensive limbo where “corrections” are minor, and affordability remains a pipe dream?

It’s easy to mistake temporary market cool-downs for real change. But a true buyers’ market in BC would mean more than just slower price growth or longer listing times. It means buyers have actual negotiating power, homes sit on the market for months instead of days, and prices reflect local incomes rather than offshore cash flows and speculative bets. It means the market stops punishing everyday residents and starts serving them.

The good news? Signs of a shift are emerging. Inventory is climbing, price reductions are increasing, and buyer demand is cooling after years of overheating. The bad news? Despite this, BC’s market remains one of the most expensive and least affordable in the country. The decades-long momentum of price inflation, combined with entrenched structural issues, means that a full-fledged buyers’ market is still some distance away — and the path there will be rocky.

In this article, we take a deep dive into the forces that drove BC’s housing market sky-high, examine current signals of change, and outline what needs to happen for buyers to finally catch a real break. Along the way, we’ll analyze key market indicators, government policies, and the psychology that keeps prices stubbornly high — even as affordability collapses.

Historical Context: 2010–2022 — The Relentless Price Surge Fueled by Foreign Money, Low Rates, and Speculation

To understand why BC’s market is so resilient — and so challenging for buyers — it helps to look back over the past decade and a half. Between 2010 and 2022, the average price of a detached home in Metro Vancouver nearly tripled, climbing from roughly $700,000 in 2010 to over $2 million by early 2022.

This explosive growth wasn’t organic or purely driven by local demand. It was turbocharged by a mix of factors: historically low interest rates, unprecedented foreign capital inflows, and speculative investment behavior that transformed homes from places to live into financial assets to flip or park wealth.

The Low-Interest-Rate Era and Easy Credit

Following the 2008 global financial crisis, the Bank of Canada maintained ultra-low interest rates for over a decade, briefly dipping near zero during the COVID-19 pandemic. Cheap borrowing costs made mortgages more accessible, and buyers were willing to stretch their budgets to get into the market. For many, the dream of homeownership morphed into a race to “buy before prices go up more.”

Foreign Capital and the Offshore Money Surge

BC, especially Vancouver, became a hotspot for global money looking for stability and a safe haven. From wealthy investors in mainland China, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia, billions of dollars flowed into BC real estate through various channels — including shell companies and nominee ownership structures designed to obscure the true buyer.

This influx distorted the market. Local buyers were competing with all-cash offers backed by offshore fortunes. The provincial government attempted to stem the tide with a 15% Foreign Buyer’s Tax in 2016, which was later increased to 20% and expanded to other regions, but these measures came years after the floodgates opened and could only slow, not stop, the inflow.

Speculation and Investor Frenzy

Low rates and foreign money created perfect conditions for speculative buying. Investors purchased properties with little intention of living in them, betting on ongoing appreciation and quick flips. By 2021, roughly 20–25% of home purchases in BC were investor-driven. Pre-sale condo developments became hot commodities, with many units bought sight-unseen, fueling a building boom focused on small, high-margin units rather than family-friendly homes.

Pandemic Impact: Boom on Steroids

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated trends already in place. Emergency monetary policies dropped rates to historic lows. Stimulus programs boosted household savings. Remote work encouraged buyers to pay premiums for more space and lifestyle upgrades. Between March 2020 and mid-2022, home prices jumped by 30–40% in many BC markets — an unsustainable surge that priced out even more locals.

The Market Today: Signs of Shift, But Why Buyers Still Struggle

As of mid-2025, the BC real estate market is undeniably showing signs of fatigue. After more than a decade of near-constant price increases, the momentum has stalled. Listings are rising; properties linger longer on the market; and buyers, long squeezed by affordability pressures, are cautiously stepping back in to negotiate. But while these early signals suggest a market shift, the reality on the ground remains frustrating for many prospective homeowners.

Inventory levels in Metro Vancouver, for example, have increased by over 20% compared to 2024, climbing toward a five-year high. Price reductions have become common, with more than 35% of active listings reporting at least one price cut in recent months. The average days on market (DOM) for detached homes has nearly doubled since the 2021 peak, moving from around 22 days to 43 days in early 2025.

Yet, despite this softening, prices remain stubbornly high. The benchmark price for a detached home in Metro Vancouver still hovers around $2.1 million — over 23 times the median household income. This mismatch means many buyers are still locked out, either priced out entirely or forced to settle for smaller, less desirable properties far from their work or social networks.

The high mortgage rates are a key part of this story. After the Bank of Canada’s hiking cycle pushed interest rates above 5%, monthly mortgage payments on a $1 million home have surged from roughly $3,800 in 2021 to over $6,200 in 2025 (excluding taxes, insurance, and strata fees) 5. For many buyers, especially first-timers, this makes qualifying for a mortgage nearly impossible without significant financial support from family or other sources.

Furthermore, buyer confidence remains shaky. Many potential buyers are wary of overpaying in a market where the last few years have been marked by sharp fluctuations and a looming sense that prices may still have further to fall. This hesitation dampens demand, even as more homes come online, prolonging the market imbalance.

The net effect? A market stuck in a frustrating middle ground — better than the hyper-heated boom years, but not yet a true buyers’ market. Prices remain out of reach for most locals, while sellers hold onto unrealistic expectations shaped by past highs.

Key Indicators to Watch for a Real Market Shift

If you want to know whether BC’s real estate market is truly shifting into buyers’ territory — beyond just headlines and temporary slowdowns — keep a close eye on these critical indicators.

1. Inventory and Days on Market (DOM)

Rising inventory is a necessary condition for a buyers’ market but not sufficient on its own. What matters is whether homes remain unsold for significantly longer periods. A sustained increase in DOM to 60 days or more, combined with a growing number of new listings, signals sellers losing pricing power.

Currently, Metro Vancouver’s DOM is near 43 days for detached homes but remains much lower in the condo market at around 20 days. Watch whether these figures continue rising over the next 6–12 months.

2. Price Reductions and Sales-to-List Price Ratios

How often sellers drop prices and by how much reveals the pressure they face. If over 50% of listings begin showing significant price cuts (5% or more), this strongly indicates sellers adjusting to real market conditions.

The sales-to-list price ratio (SLR) — the percentage of the final sale price compared to the initial listing price — is another key gauge. An SLR consistently below 95% across multiple months suggests buyers have regained leverage.

As of early 2025, the average SLR in BC hovers around 97%, down from over 101% in 2021. Tracking this trend over the year will show if sellers must accept bigger discounts.

3. Mortgage Interest Rates and Affordability Metrics

Affordability depends heavily on borrowing costs. If rates stay above 5% and borrowing criteria remain strict (such as the federal mortgage stress test), many buyers will remain sidelined despite price adjustments.

Watch government policy changes here. Any loosening or tightening of lending rules will quickly affect buyer eligibility.

4. Investor Behavior and Foreign Buyer Activity

Investor buying patterns heavily influence market dynamics. If investors begin offloading properties en masse or significantly reduce purchases, it may flood the market and increase bargaining power for traditional buyers.

Additionally, enforcement of the foreign buyer ban and vacancy taxes will affect speculative demand. Reports of increased audits, penalties, or property seizures could shift the playing field.

5. New Construction vs. Absorption Rates

New housing supply affects market balance. If new projects continue to be built but sales slow, inventory piles up, pushing prices down. Conversely, if absorption (the rate at which new homes sell) picks up, it signals a healthier market balance.

Current data shows new construction starts in Metro Vancouver fell by 15% year-over-year in Q1 2025, while absorption rates for new condos dropped by nearly 20%. Continued trends here will be crucial.

Government Policies: A Double-Edged Sword

Government intervention in BC’s housing market has been a mix of bold moves and missed opportunities, with outcomes that often pull in opposing directions. Over the past several years, policy efforts have aimed to cool the overheated market, but many have been too little, too late—or simply ineffective.

The foreign buyer ban, enacted federally in 2023, was intended to cut speculative demand from overseas investors. While the ban has reduced some direct foreign purchases, loopholes remain, and enforcement challenges mean many properties still change hands through nominee buyers, trusts, or family members not technically restricted by the ban. Additionally, enforcement is costly and slow, leaving a shadow of uncertainty hanging over the market.

Provincial programs like the Empty Homes Tax were designed to push absentee owners to either rent out or sell vacant properties. The tax has had some success: the City of Vancouver reports a slight decline in long-term vacancy rates since implementation. However, a 1% tax on assessed value is more symbolic than punitive for ultra-wealthy owners who treat homes as safe-haven assets. Without higher rates or more aggressive enforcement, the incentive to occupy or sell remains weak.

On the flip side, programs to help first-time homebuyers, such as the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive or down payment assistance, have expanded demand at a time when supply remains tight. While well-meaning, these efforts may unintentionally prop up prices by increasing the buyer pool without addressing the underlying supply issues.

Zoning reforms, touted as a key lever to increase density and affordability, have faced stiff resistance. Municipalities often delay or dilute proposals to allow multi-family housing in traditionally single-family zones, especially in affluent neighborhoods. The resulting “not in my backyard” (NIMBY) sentiment slows down meaningful densification, keeping supply constrained.

Mortgage stress test regulations also play a pivotal role. While designed to protect buyers from overextending themselves, these stricter borrowing rules make it harder for many to qualify, especially as interest rates rise. The federal government has considered easing these tests slightly, but any relaxation risks reigniting speculative demand, potentially destabilizing progress toward balance.

In essence, government policies have acted as both brake and accelerator in different parts of the market. The net effect is a complex and often contradictory environment, where policy changes can temporarily jolt the market but rarely solve its deep structural problems.

Buyer Psychology: Hesitation Amid Uncertainty

After years of skyrocketing prices and rapid appreciation, buyer psychology in BC’s housing market has shifted dramatically. Where once buyers were eager and even desperate, now many are cautious, skeptical, and waiting on the sidelines.

This shift is partly due to affordability fatigue. For many, the dream of homeownership has felt increasingly out of reach. The realization that prices may no longer climb indefinitely has introduced a new kind of uncertainty: if prices could fall, why rush? Many are adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping for a clearer signal that the market has stabilized before committing to major financial decisions.

Another factor is the fear of buying at the top. Stories abound of recent buyers who paid over $1 million for condos that are now worth 10–15% less just months later. These tales feed a collective anxiety about negative equity and the financial strain of owning in a volatile market.

Additionally, the complexity of the market—high mortgage rates, fluctuating lending criteria, government regulations—adds layers of confusion. Many buyers lack confidence in their ability to navigate this landscape without professional help, yet feel wary about trusting agents or brokers who may have conflicting interests.

Millennials and Gen Z, in particular, carry scars from the past decade. Many delayed purchasing due to student debt, precarious employment, and skyrocketing rents. Now, they face the added challenge of competing against investors and foreign buyers, fueling a sense of exclusion and frustration.

Paradoxically, this hesitation contributes to market stagnation. When buyers collectively hold back, even in the face of rising inventory, price adjustments slow, and sellers resist lowering prices, hoping the lull is temporary.

What It Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2025

For buyers, the 2025 market offers opportunities but demands patience and diligence. More homes on the market mean greater choice and negotiating room, especially for those willing to look beyond prime neighborhoods or invest in properties needing updates. Buyers with strong finances and pre-approved mortgages can leverage longer DOM and price reductions to secure better deals.

However, affordability remains a barrier for many. Even with some softening, prices are still high relative to incomes. Buyers should remain cautious about stretching budgets, factoring in rising interest rates and potential future economic shocks.

For sellers, the landscape is less forgiving than recent years. Those expecting quick sales at peak prices may find themselves waiting months or needing to lower asking prices significantly. Sellers of luxury homes or pre-sale condos face particular challenges, as these segments have seen the greatest inventory surpluses and price pressure.

The best-selling strategy in 2025 is realism. Sellers who price competitively and present well-maintained properties have a better chance of attracting serious offers. Meanwhile, holding out for “unicorn” buyers willing to pay inflated prices is a gamble that may backfire.

In summary, 2025 is shaping up as a transition year—a slow move toward balance after years of imbalance. Whether the market fully tips into buyer’s territory depends on how these economic, policy, and psychological factors evolve. For now, caution, transparency, and flexibility remain the watchwords for anyone looking to enter BC’s complex real estate market.